I'll pull the actual data rather than work from memory — let me check what's available.There's a price_explanation entity here, which is exactly what I need. Let me get the schemas first.Adobe is company_id 5049. Now the earnings event history.Rich dataset. Two of the twelve prints have no significant-move row, which means the reaction was under ~3%. Let me confirm with actual prices.Now the upcoming print and where consensus sits.Next print is tomorrow, Sept 10. Let me pull the consensus estimates.Q3 guidance is $6.67–6.72B / $6.05–6.10. Now let me examine the two prints that didn't sell off — those test the pattern.One more — current price and where the sell-side sits.Adobe reports after the close tomorrow (Sept 10), so all reactions below are next-day moves. Data is from your Distilla connector, current through yesterday's close.
The last 12 prints
| Report date | Quarter | Next-day | Rev/EPS | What actually moved it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 11 '26 | Q2 FY26 | −6.8% | Beat/Beat | Beat-and-raise, but freemium pivot cuts ~$500M near-term ARR; CFO Durn exits |
| Mar 12 '26 | Q1 FY26 | −7.6% | Beat/Beat | CEO Narayen announces exit; NNARR $60M short of $460M target; Barclays cuts |
| Dec 10 '25 | Q4 FY25 | +2.1% | Beat/Beat | FY26 guide $25.9–26.1B accepted; stock already deeply de-rated |
| Sep 11 '25 | Q3 FY25 | −0.3% | Beat/Beat | Beat + raised FY25 guide twice; still no reward |
| Jun 12 '25 | Q2 FY25 | −5.3% | Beat/Beat | FY guide raised, but Digital Media ARR held at 11% ⇒ implied H2 deceleration |
| Mar 12 '25 | Q1 FY25 | −13.9% | Beat/Beat | Q2 guide $5.77–5.82B below consensus; FY reaffirmed below street |
| Dec 11 '24 | Q4 FY24 | −13.7% | Beat/Beat | FY25 guide implied 8.9% growth vs 10.8% prior; ARR guide light |
| Sep 12 '24 | Q3 FY24 | −8.5% | Beat/Beat | Q4 revenue guide light despite $504M NNARR |
| Jun 13 '24 | Q2 FY24 | +14.5% | Beat/Beat | NNARR $487M vs $440M guided — the one clean ARR blowout |
| Mar 14 '24 | Q1 FY24 | −13.7% | Beat/Beat | NNARR $432M light; Q2 guide below consensus |
| Dec 13 '23 | Q4 FY23 | −6.3% | Beat/Beat | Q1 and FY24 guides both below consensus |
| Sep 14 '23 | Q3 FY23 | −4.2% | Beat/Miss | EPS $4.09 vs $4.10; Q4 guide light; NNARR $464M |
Ten of twelve down. Median −6.6%, average −5.3%, average absolute move ~8%. Adobe beat revenue in 12 of 12 and non-GAAP EPS in 11 of 12.
What the market is actually paying for
Not revenue. A revenue beat has essentially zero information content here — Adobe has beaten its own top line every single quarter for three years, typically by 1.5–2.6%. That is fully priced, and the two largest drawdowns (−13.9%, −13.7%) came on beats.
Not margin. Consensus has Q3 operating margin at 44.1% and FY26 at 45.1%, down from the ">46%" Adobe used to guide to. Margin compression is deliberate — reallocated to AI spend — and the market has accepted it as a cost rather than trading it either way. Morgan Stanley's July downgrade cited flat operating margin as a symptom, not a surprise.
Guidance, but specifically one line inside it: the ARR trajectory. Every large negative move traces to net-new ARR or forward ARR growth, not revenue or EPS. The +14.5% in June 2024 was NNARR at $487M against $440M guided. The −13.7% in March 2024 was NNARry at $432M. March 2026 fell 7.6% on a $60M NNARR shortfall against a $460M target while beating both headline lines. ARR is the market's proxy for whether AI is additive to Adobe or cannibalizing it, and that is the entire debate.
A second factor has attached itself since March 2026: management stability. CEO succession, Durn's departure to Marvell, and Wadhwani's exit have each produced standalone 3–7% down days outside earnings. Anil Chakravarthy takes over Dec 1.
Consensus vs. guidance
Consensus (as of Sept 4) is pinned almost exactly to the guidance midpoint on both lines for Q3:
| Guidance | Consensus | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 revenue | $6.67–6.72B (mid $6.695B) | $6.694B | $6.53–6.76B |
| Q3 non-GAAP EPS | $6.05–6.10 (mid $6.075) | $6.075 | $5.72–6.35 |
| FY26 revenue | $26.50–26.60B (mid $26.55B) | $26.539B | $25.81–26.74B |
| FY26 non-GAAP EPS | $24.35–24.45 (mid $24.40) | $24.42 | $24.25–24.99 |
Also in consensus: Q3 GAAP EPS $4.48, EBIT $2.95B, FCF $2.20B. Q4 (unguided) revenue $6.84B and EPS $6.31.
Two things stand out. First, there is no cushion — sitting on the midpoint means an in-line print is a miss against the ~2% beat the pattern has trained people to expect. To merely match the recent cadence Adobe needs roughly $6.79–6.86B and $6.17–6.23. Second, FY26 revenue consensus sits in the lower half of the guided range while EPS sits in the upper half, which is the street saying it believes the cost discipline more than the top line. The $25.81B low estimate is well below the guidance floor.
Guidance itself hasn't moved since June 11 — the Aug 27 operational update reaffirmed $26.5–26.6B rather than raising again, which given the stock's +5.7% that day on AI metrics is worth noting.
Context: $257.26 as of yesterday (−3.5%), $102B cap, about 10.5x FY26 non-GAAP EPS, versus a sell-side target that has collapsed from $440 in December to $277 now — only 7.5% above spot.
I'm not a financial advisor, and this is the setup rather than a view on direction. The information the tape will react to is ARR, not the two numbers in the headline.